Forecast Like You Mean It
Photo by Tara Winstead via Pexels
Why your habits, ambition, and capacity
should drive your numbers… not the other way around.
As founders and leaders, we talk a lot about change.
What to shift.
What to scale.
What to cut.
But awareness is usually where change actually starts. Not the shiny goals, not the big declarations… just the moment you realize something isn't working like it used to.
Two books I read recently helped me reframe what change really looks like.
The Ambition Trap by Amina AlTai reminded me that I haven't given up on ambition; I've just started being more purposeful about it.
Good Habits, Bad Habits by Wendy Wood helped me examine how unconscious habits shape my work, health, and even my reading life… and what I can actually do to help new habits stick.
What Happens When Hustle Isn’t the Goal Anymore?
One of the most significant mental hurdles I had to overcome after deciding to leave my corporate role was reframing my ideas of success and ambition. Without even noticing it, I had been mentally untangling those ideas long before I seriously considered leaving full-time work.
Amina AlTai covers so much of the work I had already done and the research I had explored while reevaluating who I'd be without the title. But she also introduced concepts I wasn't familiar with, like the 3 E's: The Eh, The Excellent, and The Exceptional. This is a deceptively simple tool for understanding where your energy goes… and where it probably shouldn't:
The Eh: Tasks you can do, but that drain you or feel mechanical.
The Excellent: Areas where you perform well but don't feel especially energized.
The Exceptional: Our innate gifts that we often overlook because they come so easily to us.
For me, when it comes to finance, my "Exceptional" is being able to dig into messy, complex data and figure out what's really going on. I can find the issue, make sense of the numbers, and connect them to the bigger business picture, often faster than most people even know where to start. That's where I bring the most value.
Where I get stuck? When I hang onto work that falls into the "Eh" or even "Excellent" categories—things like maintaining detailed spreadsheets or rebuilding reporting dashboards from scratch. I can do them. I did them for years. But they're not where I should be spending my time… or energy.
When founders confuse "Excellent" or "Eh" work with "necessary to do myself," that's when the systems start to slip. And burnout sneaks in through the back door of doing something just because you think you should.
How 43% of Your Day Might Be on Autopilot
Maybe it's just my nature, or maybe it's my psychology background, but I'm constantly looking for ways to do things more efficiently, physically and mentally. I've always assumed that most of it was within my control if I just applied enough willpower. Good Habits, Bad Habits: The Science of Making Positive Changes That Stick by Wendy Wood made me rethink that assumption.
Wood, one of the world's most respected researchers on habit formation, found that on average, habits drive 43% of our daily behavior, with many of these habits being unconscious. Nonconscious influences shape some; others by a cognitive bias known as the introspection illusion, which leads us to take mental credit for our good habits while overlooking the systems that actually drive them.
There are countless ways to apply the learnings from both of these books in everyday life. I know I'll be doing deeper work to build better habits using the research in Good Habits, Bad Habits.
But these ideas don't just apply to personal habits; they've reshaped how I think about financial planning and business strategy, too.
Forecasting with Both Feet on the Ground
The first is something I practice all the time in budgeting and forecasting: checking in, realistically, on what revenue is likely to be, based on your actual operational capacity. Anyone can plug numbers into a spreadsheet. Not everyone stops to ask:
What will it actually take to hit these numbers? Do our current operations support the goal?
This is where finance and operations intersect. It's the difference between financial models and real-world execution. It's also where capacity-informed forecasting becomes essential, not just chasing revenue for the sake of growth.
This ties directly back to The Ambition Trap. Amina AlTai makes the case for purposeful ambition, not painful ambition. That means making sure there is alignment between your goals and your energy, joy, and sense of purpose… not just endless output or a shiny title.
In business terms, this translates to setting financial targets that reflect your operational reality, not just a number that looks good in a pitch deck.
When the Numbers Don't Add Up… Look for the Habit
Another practice I often return to in budgeting and forecasting is challenging the assumptions that are quietly built into our financial models, and asking whether they're still valid. This usually becomes clear during monthly variance analysis: something doesn't track to plan, and it's time to dig in.
Was it a timing issue?
A one-off?
Or is there a deeper trend that requires a reforecast?
Just as with our personal habits, it's essential to examine the habits we've built into our business systems, especially those with financial consequences. Our brains crave efficiency, which means we often rely on routines shaped by environment and repetition.
But intention, actually understanding what's going on in your numbers, can easily get lost if you're just going through the motions of a variance review.
Final Thoughts: Changing the Way We Change
Both of these books have tremendous insights and value, so there's no way I can even get close to capturing all I learned in a blog post.
I recognize not everyone can read as much as I do, but each of these authors did podcast appearances to promote their books.
So, for my podcast folks, here are a couple that I've listened to that will give you a better sense of their books if you don't have time to read them:
At the end of the day, though, both of these books bring home the point that if you want to make real, meaningful change in your life, you need to reevaluate your why and how for long-term success.
Just pushing yourself through on willpower alone will only get you so far… and most likely lead to burnout.
What’s Next?
⏳ Feeling stuck, stalled, or like you're one spreadsheet away from a meltdown? That’s not failure… It’s a signal. Let’s make a smarter plan. Book a chat.
📬 Stay in the loop: Sign up for my monthly newsletter to get the latest blog posts, tools, and insights straight to your inbox.
📲 Follow along on Instagram or LinkedIn for behind-the-scenes strategy talk, candid founder truths, and the occasional spreadsheet meme.
📧 Know someone who needs less hustle, more clarity? Send them this post. No extra charge for the wake-up call.
About Me
I’m Tara, founder of Alchemy Advising, a consulting practice that helps small and mid-sized businesses grow with clarity, confidence, and a lot less chaos.
This blog is where I share reflections on entrepreneurship, ambition, motherhood, and the magic (and mess) of building something meaningful—one decision at a time.
Curious about working together? Reach out here—I’d love to hear more about your business.